In 2016, surprise presidential candidate, Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu a.k.a Bobi Wine lent his back to Dr. Kizza Besigye the four times presidential loser by accompanying him on the campaign trail. Bobi Wine had broken from the pack and chosen to ally with the opposition kingpin as fellow music stars allied with the NRM candidate, President Yoweri Museveni, who went on to win the election.
By late 2017, Besigye was beginning to retreat into the shadows as the new kid on the block emerged as the opposition lead act. Eventually, his bravzen supporters forced Besigye to step aside and the “boy from Magere” took his place, all the way into the contest for presidency.
Like Besigye on four different occasions, Bobi Wine came second to Museveni. Dissatisfied, he has opted for a court challenge as Besigye did on two occasions (2001 and 2006).
Before the 2011 polls, Besigye called for popular uprisings he termed as “tsunami” in the event of election fraud; Bobi Wine threatened to mobilize the public to oust President Museveni using words like “We are removing the dictator”, to an extent of flying his family abroad in preparation for what was to come.
At some point, Government accused Besigye of having connections with the PRA rebel group, and this accusation led to charges. He denied any rebel link, although he has said he would not rule out going to the bush to battle the government if the constitution was overthrown and needed to be reinstated. Bobi wine was arrested in Arua on charges of illegally possessing guns. Government later withdrew the case.
In his 2021 campaigns for president, Bobi Wine mobilized Buganda support especially the youth much the same way Kiiza Besigye did relying more on the urban youths for defiance.
Both candidates mobilized Ugandans in the diaspora and foreign political elements on the premises of suppressed democracy and entrenched dictatorship by the Government of Uganda and appealed for political and economic intervention against Uganda.
In 2016, Dr. Kiiza Besigye and FDC ran the campaigns on a defiance agenda right from the onset. Throughout the 2020-2021 campaigns, Bobi Wine acted defiantly by addressing crowds and holding processions in total disregard of the Ministry of Health Covid-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).
In both cases this defiance caused confrontations with the law enforcement agencies an issue later interpreted as dictatorship, high handedness of security and abuse of human rights.
Whereas FDC and Kiiza Besigye had a plan B, they never spelt out what it entailed. However, later unusual events that preceded the elections point to the possible content of the so called plan B. Bigyambiya (Panga) night operators that killed scores of residences and citizens in the country side, broad day attacks on private businesses more so on women mobile money operators,
Scores of women especially in Entebbe, Nansana, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka and Mukono districts were kidnaped and murdered at night. Kidnaps and murder affected mainly younger women and mainly took place in Buganda.
It will be remembered that women especially in Buganda have been for a longtime known to be ardent supporters of H.E Y K Museveni in particular and NRM in general. It may not be surprising to see the ounce NRM women supporters having changed their allegiance against NRM in Buganda. Couldn’t this be part of the Besigye’s plan B? Quite often opposition politicians ironically castigated government for failing to protect its people and property as they gained political Capital.
Much in the same way, the delegation from the European Union (EU) Mission in Uganda and the US embassy visited Besigye in 2016 after the election.
Similarly, after the 2021 election, a team of nine heads Delegation of EU countries in Uganda led by, Mr. Attilio Pacifici, met Bobi Wine at his home in Magere.
Currently, unknown people are circulating leaflets containing threatening messages demeaning the person of President Museveni, branding him a dictator; castigating his administration for failing to end poverty, nepotism, extrajudicial killings, and human rights abuse. Similar leaflets were dropped just after the 2016 election.
From this comparison of the two leading opposition presidential hopefuls, it is apparent that a common thread of action pertains between the two.
Assuming that it was not coincidence that forced similarities, by inference we foresee the following trends happening after the 2021 General Elections regarding the activities of NUP and Hon. Kyagulanyi.
So far the court petitions have taken place with a slight change as the case has been withdrawn prematurely. He has promised to take the case to the public court.
In much the same way, when FDC lost the presidency, it went ahead to declare what they called the peoples government and Kiiza Besigye the people’s president and went ahead with public agitations especially in and Kampala and other urban areas.
NUP is likely to continue with a similar structure just to maintain hope among the hopefuls that NUP has a military might of some
Whereas Kizza Besigye and his FDC proudly talked about the murder of women in Entebbe and Nansana as a failure of Government, NUP has been proud of the death of Ugandans during the recent riots and political agitation during the 2021 general elections. Both parties take advantage of peoples’ deaths as political capital as they endeavor to soil.
Like he did in the recent campaigns Kyagulanyi will continue to defy government regulations to remain politically relevant just like his predecessor Kizza Besigye did.
His activities will basically be in business centers where the populations are big for local and international image and accountability.
To create an impression that the country is insecure, failed state etc. he is likely to promote insecurity. Therefore, should not be surprised where people continue to be self-kidnapped the “Munyagwa style”, We could see a new wave of the murders of women or even young men after purported kidnaps.
We could see a new wave of Bijambiiya men or similar terror operation especially in the country side just to main that the regime cannot protect the people and their properties.
Using allies in the security forces, we could see incidents of misconduct intended to hurt members of the public by isolated elements in security forces.
Whereas FDC used Power 10 structures which were not efficient in coordinating defiance plans against the state, Kyagulanyi is bound to intensively use the social media in particular and the media in general to coordinate their plan B activities that could include commitment of the above cited crimes, destroying the personalities of the president and NRM leadership, agitating for public uprising through false information on the especially on the social media.
NUPs guys in the leadership will continue to undermine government programs to maintain support especially in Buganda and NRM will be accused of failure to deliver.
The NUP guys will continue to antagonize government plans and others will continue committing crimes as their NUP lawyers will endeavor to get them out of jail accusing government of political persecution just like FDC kept doing.
Foreign puppets like Robert “Bob” Amsterdam are bound to continue making baseless noise to justify pocket money.
Some young men could be given same with money just to continue with political agitation and on detention money will provided to rescue them from calls.
