Research world international headed by David Wakida released an opinion poll late last week that depicted the support of MP Robert Kyagulanyi to be at a staggering 22% according to their sample space of 2000 respondents.
Limitations
This is absolutely ridiculous. Uganda has a population of over 40/million people and someone only sampled a paltry 2000.
The bottom line is, there are no hard numbers when it comes to opinion polling. Everything is an approximation of an estimate of an informed guess, and the margin of error itself is only a speculation about just how far off the poll really is.
Pollsters like Wakida also tend to avoid the sticky subject of how their questions could be influencing their respondents knowing the weaknesses of the Ugandan public keen to only read summarization and take aways.
Studies indicate that researchers often prefer to just gloss over the glaring shortcomings of their opinion polls and cut to the chase, rather than admit that they may not have really learned anything.
Implications
Technicalities aside, the politics of this poll are mind bending. The timing of the poll is suspicious. The group chose a moment in time when the singer is facing court cases and under the national news spotlight.
People have a natural tendency to want to agree with others–especially others they identify (or want to be identified) with. The Herding phenomenon doesn’t just affect the pollsters and reporters: it can actually change how people answer poll questions. When respondents change their answers, we call it the Bandwagon Effect.
This is bound to help the cause of the MP since many people are easily swayed by emotions and are very likely to side with an individual seen to be suffering.
The intention of the poll also seeks to settle an important battle in the opposition ahead of the general elections.
This is part of an elaborate scheme to sideline the person of Kizza Besigye while tactically positioning, man of the moment and chief sloganeer, Robert Kyagulanyi as the answer to the opposition’s problems.
With a very divided and fragile opposition, one would think that these disparate camps would seek coalition against adversity. However true to the character of opposition personalities before them, they have chose the latter as the preferred strategy and a guarantee for defeat.
Bobi wine is a political novice who has never engaged in a prolonged national contest. During his run for MP, the singer only garnered a little more over 25000 votes in one of the largest constituencies in the country.
How could such an individual miraculously get over 20% of the national vote. This is a very outlandish Conclusion.
During the 2016 presidential elections in the USA, nearly every opinion poll had Hillary Clinton as the outright fore winner for the top seat ahead of Donald Trump. This made it difficult for very many Americans to accept defeat the moment Trump was declared winner.
In a fragile democracy like Uganda, such reckless announcements are bound to have very dangerous repercussions such as electoral violence, some thing, Bobi Wine’s camp has already engaged in consistently during past by elections.
Dr Wakida is another piece of this mind bending puzzle. He always seems to come out of nowhere every few years towards the general elections.
He is a well known opposition sympathizer, known to sway to the tunes of which ever perceived popular candidate is available. In 2011, he predicted a landslide for Kizza Besigye, in 2016 he predicted the same for Amama Mbabazi and now true to his character, he has jumped onto the Bobi Wine band wagon.
Research World international is sponsored by western agents to make these polls evidently given the scale of the logistics needed for such an operation. The results are not independently audited. How can we trust such outcomes?
The choice of nation media group as the desired outlet for the results of the sham poll is no coincidence either.
The sensationalism in the daily monitor headlines is typical of their agenda towards the Person of President Museveni and NRM government at large, a government that has given them a platform to practice their journalism uninhabited.
Moving forward
As we get closer to the electoral silly season, the Ugandan population needs to look out for such schemes meant towards influencing their political decisions. Such reckless publications are danger to the people and to the country.
This continued misuse and abuse of the media freedoms should not go unchecked. The repercussions could be grim in the current heated political environment.
