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Thursday, September 29, 2022

Why People Power Opportunists will Struggle to Win Power

Uganda’s opposition force has proven that it is myopic with no straight forward agenda spelt out to bring Government’s excesses to light.

People Power Movement is a complete case in regard to this. Its political approach mannerism well elaborate its protégé status far from attracting a formidable support with a national character.

Its brand of violence and their pride in uncouth behavior of looting and intolerance is a picture People Power members goes painting around.

Fred Nyanzi Ssentamu aka Chairman Nyanzi the elder brother to Bobi Wine, while recently appearing on a local Television station made statements which incited violence, fear and intimidation among the public.

He said People Power Movement is planning a violent protest in the aftermath of the 2021 upcoming General Election which will definitely, judging by what’s on the ground, won’t be in their favor.

Nyanzi further called on Ugandans above 18 years to get National IDs so as to be able to vote People Power.

The political ground is levelled but People Power seems to have failed to mark its boundary.

Political observers have cited out that opposition politicians, instead of finding their political ground, are busy sowing the seeds of violence rather than highlight policies that will gain them citizen confidence.

The latest Afrobarometer survey revealed that Ugandan opposition parties face major obstacles to winning majority support.

Fact is they haven’t gained any pinch of public confidence as the ruling party. They have failed to convince the people with viable alternatives that the NRM hasn’t provided, if any.

The report says in 2016, the voters’ register had 15 million voters. Out of the 67% or 10million who vote, President Museveni got 5.9 million votes, and Besigye had 3.5 votes. President Museveni beat Dr Besigye with 2.4 million votes in the last elections.

To date, the number of registered voters has increased to 17million of the 24 million Ugandans.

The likes of Nyanzi should know that in the 2021 election, Bobi wine supporters will have to share his votes among all the Opposition candidates.

Out of the 17 million votes, if NRM has a 70% turn up in 2021 election, 12 million will vote to get 51% which is required for one to be declared a winner in Uganda.

For the Presidential election, a contender needs 6,120,000 of the 12million votes.

If 70% of the 17 million voters vote, assuming the 5.9 million voters who voted President Museveni stay intact, he will need only an additional 220,000 new votes for a smooth sail. He will have garnered a comfortable win of 60%, he will need 7,200,000, of the 12million. That means he will need an additional 1.3million votes.

On the other hand, the opposition vote combined is 3.6million hence they will need 2.5million to get a 51% win. If they are to aim for 60%, they will need an additional 3.6million votes which is farfetched given the current opposition party woes.

Therefore, unseating NRM will remain their dream come true.

The NRM Government’s development strides and President Museveni experience is the capital Uganda prides in.

While People Power and other opportunist opposition politicians think they can rally youths through violent means to capture power, Ugandans have shown they are not ready to lose anymore through hopeless battles.

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