The NRM Kayunga Win And Why The Opposition Is A Dying Horse


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By Joel Ssebulime

On December 16th 2021 the NRM flag bearer for the Kayunga by- election Andrew Muwonge defeated National Unity Platform’s Harriet Nakweede in a hotly contested election which in the end separated boys from men between the opposition and the ruling NRM.

Defeat tastes bitter though it’s part of our daily life. But if you’re National Unity Platform the leading opposition party in Uganda and you’re defeated in your own backyard most especially in Buganda region where you claim strong support, you should get worried.

In the 14th January general elections, NUP won massively in the Buganda region where among the 105 electoral areas in Buganda it won 53 while NRM won 31 and other parties shared the rest hence making it its main stronghold in the country.

This prompted many individuals to think that the NRM party will not win any other election in Buganda region but this narrative has been challenged by the recently concluded Kayunga election.

The NRM went back to its drawing board and has started addressing problems that had led to their defeat in the region.

The NUP strategy is lacking and they base their political agenda on blackmail, intimidation, tribalism as was seen when Nakweede and Zaake made allegations that the security forces assaulted them and left them with injuries, part of why they were defeated in Kayunga.

This strategy won them seats in parliament in the January elections but it’s a matter of time for people to know that these people have no where they are taking them.

In the January elections, the NRM won massively in the Eastern region where out of 166 seats it got 120 seats , NUP 2 and FDC”S 10. In the Western region of 128 parliamentary seats, the NRM won 102 seats, FDC 8 and NUP’S nothing, while in the Northern region out of 98 parliamentary seats, NRM won 63, FDC 11 and NUP nothing.

This shows that the NRM is still powerful and loved on grassroots and therefore the narrative by the Opposition opportunists especially the National Unity Platform that they won the January elections is senseless and unconvincing.

They should at least concentrate on building structures from grassroots because even in Buganda region where they won by a slim margin it’s there for the taking.

I saw with dismay in the concluded Kayunga election, the NUP leader Robert Kyagulanyi instead of addressing new things or problems the party candidate wanted address if elected, he was instead busy on social media tweeting Kayunga Wagwan while the NRM candidate and party chairman used the same platform to elaborate how they intended to solve the problems of Kayunga. He is now back on social media crying that their victory was robbed. Which victory?

Like Morton Blackwell once said that; “To succeed inside a political party, one must cultivate an ability to sit still and remain polite while foolish people speak nonsense”.

The NRM Kayunga win is a clear indication that the opposition in Uganda is a dying horse and by 2026 it may have been wiped out.

The Lack of ideology has been the main problem of the opposition as it’s evidenced by how Kiiza Besigye is finally worn out after 20 years of starting ever failing and never succeeding political fronts with no ideology.

Like they say; “ the higher the monkey climbs, the more it exposes it’s bare behind,”, the Opposition’s brand of politics is largely based on calculated untenable falsehoods, hostile and corrosive which has and will force many of its allies and supporters to continuously shun it like it has been in the case of Kayunga by elections.



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