Leading up to the 2026 elections, the National Unity Platform conducted a nationwide tour to rally support. However, the police intervened and halted the tour when the NUP president failed to comply with the agreed-upon guidelines.
Bobi Wine and his group have been telling their supporters that elections cannot oust President Museveni’s government. Yet, paradoxically, they continue to participate in elections as opponents of Museveni. This raises questions among their supporters about why these politicians oppose elections while still taking part in them.
Kizza Besigye, from the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), ran for president four times. Like Bobi Wine, he claimed that elections cannot remove Museveni’s regime. However, Besigye and his FDC lost popularity because supporters saw them as lacking seriousness and alternative strategies for bringing about change. Their civil disobedience approach also failed miserably.
Bobi Wine, too, lacks alternative strategies. Despite opposing elections, the NUP does not have a strong grassroots presence to secure victory. The civil disobedience approach he advocates for is not feasible in an economy where everyone is focused on survival. Serious Ugandans are unlikely to abandon their endeavors to join violent riots that only benefit Bobi Wine and his small circle.
Furthermore, the emergence of Muhoozi Keinarugaba in the political sphere has contributed to Bobi Wine’s imminent downfall. Muhoozi has adopted inclusive strategies that attract support from all regions and ethnicities, in contrast to Bobi Wine’s tribal and divisive politics. This portrayal of Bobi Wine as ideologically confused and his tribal sentiments has united other tribes against him.
Undoubtedly, Bobi Wine lacks a clear ideology to promote. Instead, he has resorted to hate speech and divisive politics, neglecting grassroots mobilization and building a strong foundation for his performance in the 2026 elections.
As always, if he loses the 2026 elections, Bobi Wine will blame the ruling NRM party for rigging. He will continue with his usual rhetoric about abductions and torture, but he will lack anything new to offer his supporters. He will repeat the same cycle for the next five years, making a substantial income while awaiting the 2031 elections.
Ultimately, his supporters will lose hope, leading to the demise of the NUP and Bobi Wine. Politics predominantly revolves around numbers, which can be achieved by promoting an ideology and establishing effective structures to implement it. Unless his supporters learn from past opposition politicians and their strategies, they will continue to grow poorer while Bobi Wine becomes even wealthier.
The political parties in Uganda’s opposition are centered around individuals rather than ideologies. These individuals accumulate wealth, live lavish lifestyles, and use their supporters as stepping stones to fulfill their own goals. Consequently, supporters become disillusioned and abandon these opposition leaders for new political parties and emerging figures. This trend has become commonplace in Uganda’s politics.